Evo jedan rudarski trejd za nas koji nemamo vremena ni para za EURO (kao Felix :), pa nedjelju u iščekivanju utakmice provodimo kopajući nos u marketu :)

KeyCorp (Fin, SP500), 6.93B, 17.30 (52w 17.24-37.09), FA 3/5, P/C 4.4
Surprise % 21.4% -19.7% 300.0% 54.3%
% Held by Institutions: 59.60%

Volatility credit spread, sa malim dodatnim osiguranjem od velikog skoka.
Očekujem dalji pad dionice, barem prvo vrijeme. Razlozi: FAD i bear market.
Sumnje: Kratkoročni bull FAD, najave o mogućem merganju te upumpavanju kapitala.

**OZ, How Low Will It Go? -- KeyCorp (KEY)
by Houghton and Atkeson 06/02/08

With KeyCorp (KEY) shares trading near their 52-week low ($19 per share), options investors are betting KEY finds a way to go even lower.

Today, investors are buying the KEY Sept 15 Puts (KEYUC) upward of 9,000 times. Some say buy low, sell high. In Key, options investors are saying buy lower before you can sell high.

In fact, after paying as much as 85 cents for these puts, these investors believe KEY is going over 25% lower before finding a bottom.

**yfmb-spisam, Re: Get ready for $15 31-May-08 10:15 am
Some of the analysts speculate that KEY will cut the dividend by 50%. Many people, especially retires, hold this stock for income. If the dividend is cut, as with other banks, KEY will fall to $15 or lower. You can get 8% and growing dividend with MLP's. Why stick with KEY? We've already lost half our value during the past 12 months. A dividend cut will be the last straw.

**AP, Friday May 30, 4:35 pm ET
KeyCorp said in a regulatory filing Wednesday it expects higher-than-expected loan charge-offs in 2008, sending shares tumbling.

The Cleveland-based regional bank said it anticipated charge-offs -- or loans that will be written off as not being repaid -- to range between 1 percent and 1.3 percent of total loans for the year. Previously, it expected charge-offs to amount to between 0.65 percent and 0.9 percent.

The bank cited rising losses in its residential homebuilder, education and home improvement loan portfolios. Shares plunged 10.4 percent to end the day at $19.66.

The stock recovered to $20 on Thursday but retreated further to end the week at $19.47, down 11 percent since the start of the week.

Update 15.05.08
Evo što me iznenadilo:

Ispada da je bilo bolje igrati long puteve, no lako je biti sad general. Mislim da sam odigrao dobro, u skladu sa uputama našeg mentora - rijetko u pravu ali često u plusu. Ili: kad gubiš, gubi malo, kad dobivaš, dobivaj malo više. I dugoročno si na konju.
Tako da mogu reći da sam veoma zadovoljan sa ovom svojom analizom. Hvala i Felixu na podršci.
Samo kako Felixe nisi primijetio da sam i market uzeo u obzir? Mislim da je bilo nepotrebno ovdje raditi još i opširnu analizu marketa. I ovako sam se narudario oko ovog trejda :)